Open Memos to the Clinton and Trump Campaigns

Dear Hillary Camp:

We understand that the probability of Russia hacking into our national emails is problematic. We also understand that the troubling content of those emails paint a Jekyll and Hyde candidate. It also paints a campaign and political party that are not above collusion and dirty methodology. We have the ability to consider both of these issues at the same time and consider them separately. Please stop insulting our intelligence and pretend that we can't or shouldn't.

Dear Trump Camp:

We understand that all of the sexual accusations of your candidate are not confirmed by witnesses. We also understand that the probability that they are all false especially given the very words that come out of your candidate's mouth is practically nil. Please do not insult our intelligence by suggesting we ignore reality and ask us not to factor in the disgusting aspects of your candidate's existence.

Dear Hillary and Trump Camps:

The American people don't deserve either of you, but apparently you deserve each other.

Diverse Group Supports Miners at Capitol Hill Rally

The United Mine Workers of America and other labor unions were in full force - along with various organizations, activists, and concerned citizens - at a rally in Washington last week. They were there to press Congress to honor its 70 year old commitment.  A promise was made by the government in 1946 to always protect miner and retiree benefits. The details can be found in part one of the this series.

I was invited to ride along on a bus with a group from Henderson, KY on the 1470 mile round trip.  People from different unions and other backgrounds made the trip to support the miners who stand to lose quite a bit.

Tina McCormick. candidate for
Henderson County (KY) Judge Executive

Tina McCormick, who is the daughter of a miner - and a candidate

for the office of Henderson County Judge Executive - was aboard the bus as it headed towards the capital.  McCormick made an interesting choice to sign on to the trip. She decided to take three days away from her campaign to support the cause. 

“This is an issue that affects a lot of lives in our area,” said McCormick.  “I just want the miners and retirees to know that we in Henderson County will do more than give lip service.  We will actually stand with them.”

Ed Mellor also decided to support the miners.  At 82, he didn’t hesitate to climb aboard the Washington bound bus.  Mellor, a member of the Plumbers and Pipefitters union from Evansville, IN, is proud to fight alongside his union brothers of the UMWA.

“The union has been a blessing to me,” Mellor said. “I thank God for it.  Without the benefits the union got for us, I don’t know where I would be.  That is why it is important to stand in solidarity with all the unions.”

Jackie Condor and
Cecil Roberts, president of the UMWA

As Jackie Condor illustrates, one doesn’t have to be a member of a union to realize the importance of supporting the UMWA at the rally. She is a retired nurse with an activist’s heart.  Condor is proud that her grandfather was a miner under John L. Lewis.  Lewis was the president of the UMWA from 1920-1960 who negotiated the “the romise” from the federal government that now is in jeopardy. 

“I want to be a part of helping people,” Condor said. “We cannot change this country till we all pull together

For Greg King, the concern over the loss of benefits could be a matter of life or death.  He depends on those benefits now that he has been disabled from an accident while working in the mines.  If the benefits discontinue, he will not be able bear the cost of his meds for himself and his wife. King is heartened to see the diversity of people taking up the cause.

“I’m tickled to death to see folks from all walks of life standing up with us,” he said. “It shows everyone is concerned and not just us miners.”

No one had any misconceptions about the trip. They knew it was not going to be a picnic and it wasn’t. We spent most of rally day outside in the heat (with a heat index of about 100 degrees Fahrenheit). There was also a matter of a grueling 30 hour bus ride on a trip that lasted only three days from start to finish.  However, I didn’t see any complaints on the journey.  I only saw people rising up for a cause and enjoying the opportunity to spend time with others that were likeminded.  The group saw the importance of fighting to make sure that the government that represents all of us stands by its promises to each of us.

Coal Miners Take the District to Press Congress to Honor Promise

United Mine Workers Rallying
at the Capital Building.

Some things should transcend politics.  Honoring promises to hard working Americans should definitely be one of them. However, America’s coal miners are concerned that this simple and principled position is getting lost on our corporate billionaire class and some of the politicians that feed at their trough.  Unless Congress takes action, 22,000 coal miners will lose their health care coverage and over 90,000 retirees will have their pensions significantly cut.  That is why thousands of miners and other activists will descend on Washington D.C. Thursday at the Keep the Promise – Capitol Hill Rally.

The promise these miners are pointing to stemmed from a 1946 agreement between the executive branch of the government and the United Mine Workers of America (UMWA).  The Krug Lewis Agreement promised the UMWA membership that their health and retirement benefits would not be compromised.

A Little Background

Through the first half of the 20th century, there was no industry more important to the United States than the coal industry.  The country counted on the energy provided by coal through the hard work of the miners to power them to world heights of the industrial age.  So important was the coal mine industry that miners were asked to stay in the mines throughout World War II instead of fighting on the front lines.

At the conclusion of World War II, the UMWA went on strike because an agreement couldn’t be reached with the coal companies concerning their inadequate health benefits.  Industry had turned back to production of consumer goods and Americans were in the mood to consume. The country couldn’t afford a coal shortage because of the likelihood it would halt production. The stand-still would move the country back into the dire economy of the pre-war depression.

To avoid this crisis, President Harry Truman ordered the federal government to take over the mines and start negotiating with the union.  What emerged was the Krug Lewis Act which promised benefits would not be taken away from the coal miners.

What Happened?

The funds holding together the miners’ benefits were solvent up until the 2008 economic crisis.  At that time, abuses on Wall Street destroyed the pension funds of a lot of Americans. Also, the changing energy industry and the declining price of natural gas had an adverse effect on the number of employed coal miners.

In addition, corporate shenanigans such as the Peabody/Patriot Coal spinoff perpetuated the disaster.  Patriot spun off Peabody and acquired its liabilities including retiree health benefits.  When Patriot filed for bankruptcy in 2012, these benefits were in jeopardy. If it weren’t for a modest settlement between the company and the UMWA, the crisis would have hit crisis level much earlier.  However, this minor victory for the union did nothing to ensure future availability of these benefits.

The Solution

Last year, Senator Joe Manchin, (D) WV, introduced S. 1714 “The Miner’s Protection Act.” This legislation would essentially keep the promises that were made and protect the benefits of the miners, the retirees and their families.  It is a bi-partisan bill with 18 sponsors with nine being Democrats, eight Republicans and one independent.  There is an identical bill in the House that is also bi-partisan.  It has 47 Republican sponsors, and 36 Democrats.

“Our retirees suffering from black lung, who gave not only their years of service but also sacrificed their health, will be forced to choose between getting that oxygen tank they rely on to breathe or paying their electric bill. Surviving widows will be forced to choose between buying their blood pressure medicine or putting food on their tables.”

--Sen Joe Manchin, (D) WV

Senator Joe Manchin (D) WV, introduced the
Miners Protection Act to the US Senate

So what is the hold up? The leadership has not allowed the bills to progress to a vote on the floor.  Strangely enough, the majority leader of the Senate, Mitch McConnell is holding this bill up in the Senate.  As the senior senator from Kentucky, a big coal mine state, one can only conjecture why he hasn’t jumped to the aid of his constituents.

According to the AP, a McConnell spokesman said that the majority leader “has been and remains committed to helping ensure the retirement security of our nation’s retirees, including coal miners.”  Of course the UMWA and the many legislators that have signed on to support the Miners Protection Act logically respond, “Prove it!”

Relation State is firmly behind the UMWA and their membership. It was on the backs of coal miners that the US became the strongest, most industrialized nation in the world.  It was the energy driven by coal that pushed the factories that provided Americans jobs, but also automobiles, appliances, and other goods that kept the economy strong and created the middle class. Those that labored in the mines gave their bodies and health to push the nation forward.  Is it too much to ask that we honor our commitments and ensure that they get the benefits that they earned and were promised?  If Washington can bail out the Wall Street banks that caused the economic crisis, it is incomprehensible that the government could default on the promises made to the coal miners who were victims of it.

Should Voters Be Afraid of Trump Incompetence?

The Trump Team - (top) Donald ,
(from left to right) Paul Manafort,
 Melania, and Michael Glassner 

In the grand scheme of things, people do not have a reason to get bent out of shape over the the Melania Trump plagiarism scandal.  It was a lovely speech and many people share the same sentiments that she shared from the podium. Whether she plagiarized part of her speech from Michelle Obama or not isn't the red flag. No, it emerged in observing how Trump and the campaign handled the scandal.

It didn't have to be as complicated as they made it out to be. They should have issued a simple statement and moved on. Something like: "Melania gave that speech in earnest and her heart was behind every word. We apologize for any similarity or appearance of it resembling other speeches that may or may not have had some influence in her remarks." That kind of response would have shown some competence in handling obstacles that may surface in a campaign, but more importantly, those that arise in an administration.

What was the response from the campaign?  First it was denial. All of us who saw the obvious reproduction were dubbed crazy. Two days later, which is two days too long, ANOTHER statement was released.  This time, it is from a family friend and staff aid, Meredith McIver, who took the blame.  In a TMI passage from the statement, she admits that Melania borrowed some sentiments from people she admired - one of those being Michelle Obama. McIver even offered to resign over it, but the Trumps nixed that idea.

At that point, the campaign made a fifteen minute story that could have been vanquished immediately into a three day story that now includes how Melania is inspired by current first lady and enemy of the party (just ask them), Michelle Obama.  That would still be the driving story of the convention if it weren't for Ted Cruz.

Cruz, who doesn't want to help Trump at all, did so much more. He flaunted a non-endorsement in a prime time speech, drew ire from the delegates, and unified the Republican party all in his attempt to put Trump in his place.  In other words, Trump's enemies do a better job of managing his campaign than he does - which brings us to the REAL story here, the potential disaster of a Trump administration.

The thought of a Donald Trump presidency becomes more alarming each day. If he can't handle the single-goal concept of a campaign, how will he fare in a multi-fronted responsibility of running the United States?  With domestic social policies, foreign affairs, the economy, etc., the presidency is one job that shouldn't have the "flying by the seat of your pants" approach.

Despite his success in the primaries, he looks like he hasn't used any of this campaign journey as a learning experience. Even though he was able to bluster and bully his way to a nomination, support from a fraction of the conservative minded is not going to pave a smooth road to the White House.

Trump has seemed to have taken his methodology from Kramer of Seinfeld fame. His life and subsequent campaign seems to be from a fantasy camp. Up till this point, he does what he wants and falls ass-backwards into success. However, that only works in the primary if you are a targeting only conservatives. In a world where Limbaugh and Fox News has shaped his audience, he can play to them in any obtrusive way he wants. They will applaud his defiance of political correctness and simplified solutions.

However, in the general election, he has to draw from a new audience. They are more complicated and discriminating than the primary crowd that readily gobbles up defecated propaganda that the Conservative Entertainment Complex produces. Trump seems to flirt with a pivot towards a general election message, but so far he has proven to be like the weak dieter who holds out as long as he can, but damn it, he is going to eat that piece of cake. He returns to his boorish ways to the cheers of his base, but also to the gagging sounds of those he now needs to win over.

Instead of Kramer, Trump should borrow from another Seinfeld character, George Costanza. George learned that his every inclination has been wrong so he endeavored to do the opposite of his urges. As Jerry told him, "If every instinct you have is wrong, then the opposite would have to be right." It worked for George. It could work for Trump.

The primary campaign and the general election campaign ARE opposites. That is why most politicians look like complete frauds. They tell their base one thing in the spring, and pivot in the fall. Or as Eric Fehrnstrom, Mitt Romney's senior adviser for his 2012 campaign, put it, "I think you hit a reset button for the fall campaign, Everything changes, It's almost like an Etch A Sketch, You can kind of shake it up, and we start all over again." Of course, as true as that statement is for campaign strategy, he probably needed to keep that truth to himself.

As part of his campaign shift, Trump needs to do the opposite of what all his impulses tell him to do. If he feels the need to double down on an issue, he probably actually needs to back up. We will see if he has much luck with that. He is the climax of the Republican National Convention Thursday night with his nomination acceptance speech. That speech will determine what kind of direction his campaign will go.

Will he get a bump or a crater? If he does the opposite of his impulses, he will probably be okay.
However his gut is probably telling him not to take the opposite strategy to heart. Someone over at the campaign should probably hide the cake.

The "Berners" are ready to Occupy the News Channels for Bernie Sanders

There is a movement afoot that has Bernie Sanders supporters ready to occupy the media for next Tuesday's primaries.

What caused this stir is something Chris Matthews, of MSNBC, stated on the air to Jeff Weaver, Bernie Sanders' campaign manager, "I'm told by the experts on numbers around here at NBC and elsewhere that come June 7th, the day of the California primary, . . . that at eight o'clock that night Eastern Time the networks will be prepared, including this one, to announce that Hillary Clinton has now gotten over the top - that she will have won the nomination. In numbers, it's done! What will that do to turn out if that's five o'clock Pacific time with three more hours to vote in California, who will be least likely to vote?  Sanders' people from 5 to 8, or Hillary's?"

It was at this point that Humpty Dumpty establishment finally had their big fall. This arrogant proclamation by Matthews infuriated the Bernie crowd.  Afterwards, social media became abuzz encouraging the faithful to stand up to these establishment media giants in the same spirit that Sanders has crusaded throughout his life - through peaceful protest.

The issue is that only the pledged delegates, i.e, those that are mandated by the voters, are locked-in delegates.  The superdelegates are basically floaters.  They can change their mind everyday from now until the convention.  Nothing is written in stone for them.  Weaver explained to Matthews that the pronouncement would be inaccurate because the superdelegate count is basically a poll, not a vote. He compared it to calling the California primary election based on polling numbers rather than the voters on election night.  

What made matters worse is the response Matthews gave to Weaver, "I don't want to have this conversation."  

Of course he doesn't but it was too late for that.  As a result the "Berners" are mobilizing. There is talk of showing up at the door of NBC at Rockefeller Center, CNN at Columbus Circle (both in New York City) to express their displeasure with the establishment media who they are convinced has been out to get Sanders from the beginning.

What makes it look particularly bad for MSNBC is the hypocrisy.  It is hard to reconcile that their commentators routinely chastise Republican policies that suppress the vote while their basic reporting policy will do the same thing come Tuesday night.

If the media follows through with its pre-mature announcement,  it will be just another in a long list of ways the entire establishment has been trying to contaminate the democratic process in the primary process. It is this kind of system that gave birth to the Trump and Sanders' phenomena.  It will be interesting to see how they all attempt to put Humpty Dumpty back together again.

Bigger Than Bernie

Why don't Sanders supporters get it? Don't they know that Donald Trump winning the presidency is Armageddon? Don't they care about the appointments he will make to the Supreme Court? DON'T THEY? The answer: Yes and no.
Many people want to tell Bernie Sanders supporters that no matter how they feel about Hillary Clinton, they should be ready to work for her if she secures the nomination. The thinking is that a Clinton presidency while a lot less appealing than Sanders in the White House is infinitely better than a Trump presidency. While Bernie doesn't yet urge his followers to be prepared to support Clinton if he comes up short, he does admit that a Trump presidency would be the worst of all possibilities.However, it seems that Bernie doesn't quite understand the full impact of the movement that he started. It has become bigger than Sanders and more about the future of politics in the United States.
The Bernie revolution is hoping to change progressives to a different way of politicking and governing. They want to do it from within the Democratic party because of the two main parties, it is the most progressive. However, a great number of Bernie supporters are just now getting acquainted with politics and the Democratic party and have found both to be contemptible. There is no "sucking it up" and getting behind the party. They are more inclined to start their own party than to coddle up to the one that rejected them. It wouldn't be a leap to say that half of them wish Bernie would walk out right now and run as an independent.
To the revolution, this election isn't about beating Trump; it is about transforming the way America does its business. Without Sanders, it is business as usual. If it takes Trump to screw things up to wake some progressives up, then a Trump presidency isn't' the worst thing in the world that could happen. Politics as usual is worse than even Trump. Is that a practical approach? Probably not. Couldn't the revolution be won in increments without giving up the White House and congressional coat tails to the Republicans? Perhaps. But just remember, the idea of increments was what they rejected in the first place. That was the mantra of that other primary candidate.
To the "Bernie or Bust" crowd, for a revolution to succeed, the insurgents are going to have to be prepared to sacrifice for the cause. A Trump presidency, no matter how horrible, is merely a sacrifice and not a defeat. They know that a raccoon will chew through his arm to free itself from a trap. A Trump presidency may be that sacrificial limb. The sacrifice may hurt and disadvantage them for a spell, but will also provide incentive for them to come back stronger than ever. At least, that is their mindset. They just may be right.

UPDATE: Trump Not As Smart as We Gave Him Credit

UPDATE:

Just when we thought we had Donald Trump figured out, he comes through and confirms what many have accused him of being this entire primary season - just a blow hard, and a lucky one at that.

Relation State, on careful analysis (as seen in the original article below), determined that there had to be some genius to Trump, despite his appearance of being a pompous, policy vacant celebrity.  However, after having a brilliant strategy come to fruition, he backed out like a typical flip-flopping politician that listens to too many advisers.

The reason Trump gave was that it wasn't appropriate to debate the second place finisher in the Democratic Party.  What paints Trump as dishonest (this time) is that nothing has changed in the Democratic primary situation in the last 24 hours when he agreed to the debate.  It is a cop-out explanation.  What makes that position worse is that he took a leap in the debit direction on ALL four of the reasons that made debating Sanders so brilliant in the first place.

By not debating, he gives up the opportunity to 1) use his leverage to fashion the debate for his maximum benefit, 2) have a huge, national audience to watch him slam Hillary Clinton, 3) up his PR by raising money for a good cause.  Now that he has painted Bernie as the loser despite Trump's position that the Democratic primary was rigged, he now puts himself squarely INSIDE the establishment with the rest of the "Hillary has already won" crowd.  Doing that takes Trump out of his inside position to 4) court Bernie's followers.   By slamming the door in the "Bernie has already lost" fashion, he lost his chance to woo them.  He may have even made Hillary look a lot better than she did.

Perhaps this thong sandal of a decision shouldn't be surprising since he has changed positions on just about every issue that he has initiated.  It can only be assumed, like his other positions and proclamations, his agreement to debate Bernie Sanders was "just a suggestion."

(Previously)
____________________________________
At first blush, it doesn’t look like a good idea for Donald Trump to debate Bernie Sanders.  Everyone knows that it is seldom a good idea to “debate down.”  Because Trump has already clinched the Republican nomination, debating the long shot in for the Democratic nomination is indeed debating down. 

However, Donald Trump didn’t get where he was by always doing the obvious or the safest things.  He somehow has a foresight often missed by the workaday pundits that you find on cable news channels.  The master of the greatest show in politics always seems to find the unconventional way to get ahead.  This time is no exception.

What is so genius about this debate for Trump?  There are four main components that will give him a great advantage in the fall.

1. He can forge the rules to give him the maximum benefit.  Trump has all the leverage in this deal. Sanders would have to give in to just about every demand because he needs the debate; Trump doesn’t. He has already demanded that the purpose would be to raise money for women’s health agencies.  Trump could also demand that neither participant engage in personal attacks on EACH OTHER (I emphasize this with great intention).    Sanders is inclined to play that way anyway.  With this, Trump ensures that Sanders doesn’t go after the “Trump is a bigot” tack which is Trump’s biggest weakness – as the demonstrators at his rallies continue to point out.

2. Trump gets the opportunity to slam Hillary Clinton for two hours in front of a national audience – probably a YUUUUGE one.  Trump and everyone else (except Sanders and his supporters) believe that Clinton will be the Democratic nominee in the fall. He will take every opportunity to rake Hillary over the coals and Sanders will likely be an accomplice rather than a Clinton defender. With the recent Inspector General’s report about Clinton’s email violations, he will even have fresh fodder. While Sanders will probably not deal with Clinton’s personal issues, he will be right there with other issues such as exchanging money for access, the Iraq war, and international trade deals.  Both candidates will make it look obvious that Hillary is just wrong about too many issues.  In addition, he will easily be able to refer to Clinton as being not smart enough to take advantage of this debate and perhaps paint her as a coward for not being brave enough to face him or Sanders.

3. By raising money for organizations dealing with women’s health, he capitalizes on the female demographic where some are still sitting on the fence about Trump.  Many Republican women do not like Trump, but dislike Clinton as well.  Trump may help to sway a portion that is just plain undecided. It is just good public relations.

4. Perhaps the most genius aspect of the debate deal for Trump is that he will have the opportunity speak directly to Bernie supporters.  He knows that if Bernie loses the nomination, the last thing they will WANT to do is support Clinton.  Trump can slyly court a practically captive audience and attempt to give them another option.  For this to work, he will have to stress the issues on which they both agree (Iraq war, trade, and campaign finance, etc.).  In order for this to work, he will have to resist his normally callous attacks and keep his eye on the prize.  If he does this and emphasizes his anti-establishment persona, he may steal a few – especially the “Never Hillary” crowd.  I have heard many “Bernie or Bust” people say that it would serve the DNC right if Trump gets elected.  Some even think it is the only way the Bernie revolution can survive if Sanders doesn’t get the nomination.  Being “not that bad,” may capitalize on that spirit and pick up a few more votes.

At this point, there is no reason to underestimate Donald Trump.  Whenever he gets accused of doing something stupid or unwise, it ends up working in his favor.  For the above reasons, the Bernie debate strategy is very impressive. He will do what he does best which is infuse himself into the front of the news coverage while Hillary looks like an ineffective spectator in the back of the auditorium. What makes stealing the media here particularly a bonus is that he is coming into what normally would be considered a media dead spot for a candidate.  He is already the presumptive nominee.  He has little to do to make news until the convention in July – other than picking a running mate.  It would be hard to do that for two solid months.

However, to make this strategy work, he will have to remain disciplined throughout the process and keep his mind on the bigger prize – November.  If he gets to aggressive with Sanders, he will alienate Bernie’s followers and defeat his strategy.   The only thing that will stop a windfall for Trump is that he isn’t brave enough to go through with it or disciplined enough to execute it.  However, it has usually been a mistake to bet against Trump.